BlackRock Bitcoin ETF timeline and implications?
BlackRock has submitted an application for a Bitcoin spot ETF called iShares Bitcoin Trust. This has led to a surge in the market and the hope that BlackRock will ignite a “Great Accumulation Race” around Bitcoin. Reportedly, 69% of all investors have been unwilling to sell their Bitcoins for over a year.
Market experts predict that the BlackRock ETF has a high chance of approval. BlackRock has an approval ratio of 575:1, and the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) ratio for rejecting Bitcoin spot ETFs is 33:0.
Because BlackRock has close ties to US regulators and Democratic politicians, there is optimism that the ETF will be approved. K33 Research suggests that BlackRock is unlikely to spend time and resources if they do not see the chance of approval as very high.
Race For The First Bitcoin Spot ETF
There are rumors that BlackRock’s ETF filing could be decided within “days to weeks.” The SEC’s deadlines provide a clue, but since the application has not yet been published in the Federal Register for comments, there are only approximate estimates.
K33 Research has drawn up a rough timeline based on the SEC’s deadlines. Theoretically, a decision can be reached within four time intervals, with the decision process following a scheme of anchored decision dates.
- Bitcoin price breaks $30,000, is the bull run back?
- Is Bitcoin’s rally driven by derivatives? Will it continue?
- Bitcoin mining stocks are riskier than Bitcoin.
Assuming the application is published on June 29, the SEC has 45 days in the first time interval to approve, reject or extend review of the ETF. Similar inflection points occur 45 days later, 90 days later and 60 days later.
K33 Research states that the SEC must announce a decision after 240 days at the latest. This means that the market will have a decision by February 23, 2024, at the latest (may be shifted by a few days depending on the publication in the Federal Register).
Will Grayscale Or CBOE Preempt BlackRock?
Although BlackRock’s ETF filing has received a lot of attention, there is a possibility that two other institutions will get approval before them. CBOE filed its “ARK 21Shares” before BlackRock and could potentially benefit from BlackRock’s momentum. Grayscale may also receive a ruling ahead of BlackRock in its legal battle with the SEC.
All market participants are currently in a race for first mover advantage. The launch of ProShares BITO has demonstrated this advantage. BITO saw $1bn in inflows two days after launch. To date, BITO has a 93% market share among futures-based long BTC ETFs.
However, it seems clear that whatever the outcome, Bitcoin investors will be the winners.
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As of now, the price of BTC has stopped rising above $30,000 after yesterday’s increase and is currently being traded at $30,150.