El Salvador’s bonds surge 62% amid Bitcoin rally.

El Salvador's bonds surge 62% amid Bitcoin rally.

The Rise of El Salvador’s Bonds: A Tale of Bitcoin and Ratings Agencies

The financial market has long held the belief that ratings from traditional agencies are lagging indicators. This adage seems to hold true when we examine the recent experience of El Salvador. Since Fitch downgraded El Salvador’s debt rating in September 2022 with a prediction of a debt default in January 2023, the country’s junk-rated bonds have defied expectations and experienced a meteoric rise, mirroring the ascent of bitcoin throughout 2023.

The value of El Salvador’s bonds has surged by an impressive 62%, currently trading at 72 cents on the dollar. Meanwhile, bitcoin has seen a staggering 79% increase in value during the same period. El Salvador’s bonds have even outperformed the Invesco Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt ETF (PCY), one of the largest holders of the country’s debt, according to Factset. This unexpected turn of events has left many market participants questioning the conventional wisdom of traditional ratings agencies.

El Salvador’s journey into the world of cryptocurrency began in mid-2021 when it announced bitcoin as legal tender. Since then, the country has been accumulating the digital asset, currently holding approximately 2546 bitcoin. Despite initial skepticism from ratings agencies and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), El Salvador has defied expectations. In January, the country announced the repayment of an $800 million bond, a feat that Moody’s had predicted to be impossible.

The decision to embrace bitcoin has consistently drawn disapproval from ratings agencies and the IMF. Moody’s expressed concerns that El Salvador’s adoption of bitcoin as legal tender would hinder its ability to secure an IMF deal to address the upcoming bond maturity. Similarly, S&P warned of immediate negative implications and highlighted the risks outweighing the potential benefits. The IMF, while acknowledging that the risks associated with bitcoin adoption have not materialized thus far, urged caution due to the legal risks, fiscal fragility, and speculative nature of cryptocurrency markets.

Despite these warnings, the change in fortune for El Salvador’s bonds seems to be part of a market-wide trend. Junk-rated bonds of other nations, such as Turkey, Argentina, and Nigeria, have also outperformed investment-grade bonds early in the year. This suggests that investors are seeking higher returns in riskier assets, potentially driven by factors beyond traditional ratings assessments.

To further illustrate the impact of El Salvador’s bitcoin adoption, let’s consider the recent announcement by Volcano Energy. The company has secured $1 billion in commitments to build a 241 megawatt (MW) Bitcoin mine in the Metapán region of El Salvador. Notably, among the investors is Tether, the issuer of USDT. This investment further underscores the growing interest in El Salvador’s bitcoin experiment and its potential to revolutionize industries beyond finance.

In conclusion, El Salvador’s experience with bitcoin and its impact on the country’s bonds has challenged the traditional notions of ratings agencies as lagging indicators. The exponential rise in the value of El Salvador’s bonds, paralleling bitcoin’s surge, highlights the evolving dynamics of the financial market. While ratings agencies and the IMF continue to express reservations, the market is demonstrating a willingness to embrace risk and explore alternative investment opportunities. As El Salvador continues its journey into the world of cryptocurrency, it serves as a compelling case study for the transformative potential of blockchain technology.

BTC vs El Salvador bond (TradingView)